All Comments for Estimates Show Wuhan Death Toll Far Higher Than Official Figure

I would feel more confident if the WHO or CDC had also validated China’s diagnosis of plague in 2 patients that were transferred to Beijing in early November. That story is so full of holes, especially indicating that the patients sought medical care for 10 days. PP is usually fatal within 3-5. Suppose those 2 cases were the beginnings of Covid19. Where did they go? Did they or anyone possibly infected by them travel to Wuhan? It is too much of a coincidence that the incident was reported (Nov 12) only a few days before the supposed Patient Zero of Covid19 showed up at a medical facility in Wuhan.

Apr 26, 2020 10:50 AM

Judging from the 24-and-7 operation of Wuhan's crematoria, funeral home reports, and numbers of funeral urns ordered in Wuhan, the official figure of 2,535 deaths there from covid-19 is ludicrous. A conservative estimate for the numbers of deaths in Wuhan from covid-19 would be roughly ten times the official party-line number of 2,535, or roughly 25,000.

Apr 22, 2020 12:23 PM

Revelations Chapter 16 - 7 bowls are being released! This is just the beginning of the end. Come to me my wicked children of this world.
- Beezelbub

Apr 17, 2020 01:00 PM

Nothing original here. All sources of the numbers are from the social media. I believe 40K death may be a very safe upper bound including all the death. I don't believe 2500 death either because during the time of chaos it is impossible to count every case. My guess is 6000 death. Pure speculation

Apr 14, 2020 04:51 PM

CCP is good in math . The total number of death to CCP Virus that they show to the media, is the quotient of the result . .But if you multiply it by 35,300 that;s the total number of deaths

Apr 13, 2020 12:53 AM

Hey Mark from San Francisco, so you think Wuhan had 2,500 total deaths from COVID-19? It seems like that’s the angle you’re taking but I just wanted to be clear.

Apr 11, 2020 02:19 AM

The toll is very high. The government is hiding the numbers.

Apr 10, 2020 04:37 PM

This is so stupid. How can you talk about estimates of cremations done without even mentioning that about 14,000 Wuhan residents die every month even in normal times? And yet you assume all deaths were COVID-19 deaths. Unbelievable.

Apr 02, 2020 06:55 PM

Mark from San Fran. The article only states cremation figures which not all 14k typically who die each month are cremated. The article states cremation is typically 220 per day which falls in line with your 14k deaths per month as China historically cremates 47% of deaths. The Crematories have the capacity if running 24/7 non-stop to do 10 X the 220 number and 2200 + per day 24/7 is what the article clearly explains. That is an extra 2,000 per day and God knows how many not cremated. Regardless, it is far, very far from 2500 dead. It is shocking and beyond disgusting what took place.

Apr 20, 2020 06:10 PM

If there is any question about the communist urge to sort of write their own history, I.e. LIE, one should watch the docu-drama “Chernobyl”. Nothing to see here, move along!

Apr 02, 2020 10:32 AM

I read one person's calculation on the net, copy and paste below:

To verify the article's figure, let's run some calculations using these parameters below:

- Wuhan has a population of 11 millions (it's actually a tad more)
- Yearly flu infection rate is about 12%, and Covid is even more infectious than flu, but we'll use the 12% figure
- we'll use the 4% Covid death rate for China (calculated from Worldometer as a ratio of deaths/cases)

so by my calculation:

11 million x .12 x .04 = 52,800 deaths.

Apr 02, 2020 10:19 AM

Who to believe? The common Chinese citizens? Whom have everything to loose by speaking out against they’re government. Imprisonments or worse. Or a government that has everything to gain by hiding the ugly truth? Economic stability intact. No civil or world blame. They are attempting to run the perfect propaganda machine and failing because a handful of they’re own people won’t aren't buying it. Read a book describing the history of socialism. This is what socialistic society looks like. It’s happening here too. The difference is the US media controls the news we get for now. The news media are mostly socialist and once they get the government they want the rest of us will be suppressed. I don’t want to work in a government controlled hospital. I see what this looks like in Canada. And you don’t want to be treated by a government run hospital. Talk to an outspoken Canadian if you want proof. Sorry to rant as this went political but this is a political matter.

Apr 02, 2020 08:01 AM

I agree that many mainstream media lean left. Apart from RFA, for a non-socialist media, I'd recommend The Epoch Times.

Apr 05, 2020 09:29 AM

The Chinese CCP is known for secrecy of operations. The first case of Covid19 was in November 2019, and by December 2019, whistleblowers like Dr.Wenliang had alerted the people, whereas the CCP did all possible to suppress the data from the rest of the world.Only Korea, most intelligently, took due precautions,as they had learnt about the epidemic in Wuhan.
The CCP would have done the entire humanity a favour, by releasing data about the infectiousness of Covid19 and associated large number of mortalities.Instead,they suppressed the data. Innocent lives have been lost, and the global economy has collapsed.
We should be relying on what we.. several governments and pandemic experts estimate.The locals in Wuhan have seen and experienced and correctly estimated, basic arithmetic, about the number of cremations done, with hired help from all over China. Should we still have blind, unshakeable faith in the heroic data released by CCP? Die-hard fans of the CCP Covid19 data are most welcome to take the first flight to Wuhan, and reside in some virus infested wild life market. They have closed the barn after the horses have bolted all over the world.

Apr 02, 2020 04:29 AM

Anonymous Reader : most learned westerners do not trust *ANY* numbers or stats produced by the chinese government, its wholly owned assets or agents.
"This article seems pointless." Hmmm, perhaps you are simply another chinese government lemming. A bureaucrat's bureaucrat. The personification of useless *and* opinionated. Go play in traffic... And don't wash your hands - we're all hoping for one less of you.

Apr 01, 2020 11:05 AM

Don't trust communists PERIOD!!!

Apr 01, 2020 05:01 AM

You don’t trust the government so you trust the word of its citizens? I am sure the numbers are off, but that is not really of concern here, it is about listening to the professionals and trusting their expertise in dealing with the situation. This article seems pointless.

Apr 01, 2020 12:15 AM

This virus is heavily politicized and is being used by the CCP as a way of legitimizing the 'China model'. If China's 'model' is able to keep numbers lower than the US, it's a huge PR win for them, at the expense of the US-led order which we take for granted and protects our freedoms.
From the very beginning, the CCP have foisted an information/propaganda war upon us, which has unfortunately forced our hand. We need articles like this for self-defense.
The US is far from perfect, but who really believes a CCP-led world order would be better? There is a lot more at stake here. There's a war going on. That seems to have gone completely over your head.

Apr 02, 2020 01:40 AM

The comment above is clearly a communist government troll posting. “Move along people, nothing to see here, the truth is irrelevant”.

Apr 02, 2020 10:36 AM

Does no one wish to discuss the fact that China sent Italy tonnes of pork tainted with African Swine Fever? Will no one mention the million defective test kits sent to Spain and Turkey or the 1.2 million defective masks they sent to the Netherlands? These are not private companies making these mistakes. These are companies owned by the CCP. At what point does this sort of behavior, paired with the obvious deception of the entire world with bogus data, amount of an act of war? The Paper Tiger has backed into a corner.

Mar 31, 2020 10:05 PM

Although very sad and I am not implying intent, when you look at the larger picture it does not look good at all. My jaw dropped when I heard about the masks and test kits. It's all very sad. I don't think anyone needs a war right now do you? I do however think governments should be rethinking trade deals right now.

Apr 01, 2020 10:38 AM

Perhaps the cell phones going offline could also be attributed to having to cancel service due to money? It can be hard to maintain those services along with purchasing necessities in terms of crisis. Lots of people are going to have trouble paying rent in the U.S. If China has similar payment styles there and similar funcitonality in that regard, then it could be possible it is also financial hardship, not just death, causing the dip in cell phone numbers.

Mar 31, 2020 08:29 PM

The cremation, along with the cellphone data people love to cite, are purely anecdotal. There have been mass layoffs, people can’t pay their bills, of course tens of millions of cellphones would get disconnected. As for the cremations, people should know Wuhan is a city of 6 million, and people still die of other causes.

Mar 31, 2020 04:06 PM

11.000.000 citizens / 80 years expectancy = 137.500 will die in 1 year.

137.500 people /12 months * 3 months of epidemia = c.a. 35.000 people

This is a number you have to deduct (on average) to get "additional dies" on Covid.

Essentially: we know nothing and this will not change :-]

Mar 31, 2020 03:11 PM

I believe the death toll could be much higher than 2,000, but not as high as the article estimates. You can search the apple store for a social software called Weibo, which is similar to the Chinese version of twitter and has a translation function. You can see different perspectives and perspectives and information.

Mar 31, 2020 11:33 AM

China's normal death rate is 7.7 per year per 1,000 people.
Wuhan has a population of 10 million.
The normal death rate would be 6400 a month. Don't forget, there has been both locked down and the recent Chinese New Year holiday.
Not at all clear these anecdotes are backed by fact.

Mar 31, 2020 11:20 AM

15 million Mobile phone numbers in China have gone off line during this pandemic suggesting a death toll even higher?

Mar 31, 2020 07:03 AM

Or the phones have been shut off to silence people who might spread the truth.

Mar 31, 2020 02:12 PM

It's now 21 million. This surely doesn't mean that many people, since the Chinese use many social media boiler rooms with vast numbers of fake accounts and so on. But it certainly makes us question some of their claims.

Apr 01, 2020 12:39 AM

This could well be the start of the great fear of authorities...Civil unrest.

Mar 31, 2020 05:30 AM

Japan Sources say in Wuhan there were more then 200'000 People burned. Just wait and see it will come out eventually and the backlash will be swift in the Country. But nobody talks about Iran? How did it get there so fast?

Mar 31, 2020 03:01 AM

I think we should accept the figures provided by China as for all other countries.
If one goes down the route of challenging figures one can find inconsistencies in every country.

Mar 30, 2020 09:46 PM

This is far from “inconsistencies “. These are outright lies from the communist government. Wake up!

Mar 31, 2020 02:18 PM

So you believe in that graphic of total cases? Isn't it ironic that it goes up to 80.000 and then it's just like - nope, it's over!
As a student of Chinese politics I don't buy it. I do not buy it.

And yes, there are inconsistencies in other countries, too, and there's nothing wrong with discussing it but the question is whether the governments have any interest in hiding the real numbers or simply lack the capacities. In China, the CCP's legitimacy may be damaged significantly and this could lead to a national political crisis as their rule is part of the Constitution.
Japan apparently stopped testing people after a few days because they really wanted to keep the Olympics going (apparently there's a belief of a curse). Denmark had to stop testing everyone in mid-March so people would stay home instead of going to the doctor's office and possibly infecting everyone in the waiting area, so the numbers between March 13th and April 1st only contain severe cases.
I'm sure there are plenty of other countries - I suspect South Korea though I cannot figure out what their interests would be, they don't have anything to lose by publishing the real numbers. I also think that many African countries may lack test kits or have received defect ones like Spain did so I don't necessarily believe those numbers either.

But the CCP knows, and they're hiding it for fairly obvious reasons.

Apr 02, 2020 05:18 AM

There have been 21 million cell phones canceled in China this year, so...

Mar 30, 2020 05:47 PM

OK, wait up people. If there 84 ovens, running 24 hours a day for twelve days, that's 24,192. That seems to NOT jibe with the whole conspiracy theory.

Mar 30, 2020 04:54 PM

I worked in crematorium for about 6 months.Seldom cremated only one body at a time.Usually two to three together.Sorry,but the ashes in the urn all look the same.With the great number of bodies being delivered,I think the workers just processed them as fast as they could.

Mar 30, 2020 04:09 PM

The 81,000 total reported cases from the Chinese government is laughable. Spain, with a population much smaller (46 million vs 1.3 billion) than China, has more reported COVID19 cases than China now. Ridiculous. But yet the crooked MSM in this country continues to report that lie as the truth !!

Mar 30, 2020 03:52 PM

Typical communist cover ups. Why the media consistently gives the murderous Chinese government a pass since the 1950’s is beyond me. The heroes of China would speak if they were not so blatantly murdered

Mar 30, 2020 03:11 PM

Someone on here commented that the evidence appears to be purely anecdotal. LOLOL. Duh - ya' figure? When a Country blatantly lies, all you will ever have is "anecdotal" evidence. Pure genius right there.

Mar 30, 2020 02:39 PM

Someone on here commented that the evidence appears to be purely anecdotal. LOLOL. Duh - ya' figure? When a Country blatantly lies, all you will ever have is "anecdotal" evidence. Pure genius right there.

Mar 30, 2020 02:24 PM

No One would believe china.
Chinese government denying the fundamental Rights to UYGUR MUSLIMS IN China. but, boasting to the world that they give all rights to muslims.

Mar 30, 2020 02:22 PM

Even if the numbers from Wuhan are incorrect. And they missed some due limited hospital beds and testing kits at the initial start of the virus.

Hong Kong corona viruses cases From January - March 10 Around 120, this is happening when Hong Kong never shut borders to China.

Hong Kong Corona viruses cases. Now after telling all overseas Hong Kong residents to comeback to the city before a mandatory 14 day quarantine , in 15 days 500+ new cases with around 90% related to a traveler from aboard. The same pattern can be found in Singapore 200 to 800, Taiwan who closed the border to China early which had under 50 cases for for over 5 weeks.

The EU and US must have been doing much worse than China in containing the virus.

Mar 30, 2020 01:37 PM

It’s so obvious the Chinese figures are wrong. Just as their GDP numbers are wrong, the fact they had close to 20 trillion dollar liquidity problem in their finance system PRIOR to SARsCov2.

Mar 30, 2020 01:33 PM

Average mortality of 8/1000 people/year would mean about 13000 in two months. So subtracting that means Wuhan lost 40,000 to 46,000 to the virus. The Chinese do not know how to tell the truth and will always do what it takes to protect their leadership. The best thing that can come from all of this is if the rest of the world sanctions them back into the stone age, and let the Chinese people deal with their own government.

Mar 30, 2020 01:14 PM

Look at some independent sources, for example, China Uncensored or Epoch Times on YouTube. They both have great sources. Watch a dozen or two of their videos from China, and then see if you believe the Chinese data.

They have lied from the beginning of this crisis, why would anyone believe they are suddenly telling the truth?

If their data is good, why won't they permit outside journalists access? If their data is good, why do they censor everything that any Chinese citizen has to say about the virus?

Anyone who believes China on this is incredibly naive.

Mar 30, 2020 01:01 PM

Okay who thinks China is telling the truth, raise your hand? Come on, I know there is at least one of you out there. What not one person believes China? Are you sure? Okay then, it's settled, China is lying!
[This comment has been edited by RFA Editorial staff per our Terms of Use]

Mar 30, 2020 12:04 PM

@JM You really think so??? The article is talking about Wuhan instead of the whole country! Grab your calculator and do the math! The gov just lied as usual.

Mar 30, 2020 10:57 AM

Wow

Mar 30, 2020 09:43 AM

Understand that China, with a population of 1.4B, has over 9 million deaths each year? That equates to a staggering 24.6k/day. Not that I trust the Chinese to deliver accurate information on anything, particularly anything they've botched but this articles' evidence appears purely anecdotal.

Mar 30, 2020 07:26 AM

The province of Wuhan is only 60 million. Allegedly this is where the bulk of deaths came from, not the entire population of China. So to assert that China’s total deaths per day has anything to do with 60M of its total population is completely absurd!! If you wanna buy into their numbers go right ahead. The fact that they have allowed the wet markets to reopen and do business as usual just goes to show how little they care. They’ll do anything to cover up the actual deaths from this virus.

Mar 31, 2020 02:16 PM

Just like Tienanmen square massacre was forgotten, this man made massacre also will be forgotten by business minded west.

Mar 30, 2020 06:48 AM

The West is flooded by propaganda from the East and their friends in the West, more than happy to push it. The rest of us roll our eyes and try to provide evidence to the contrary.

Mar 30, 2020 12:00 PM

If that’s the case, they need have more than 2M infected people. How could they handle these 2M people? I think they have lied about the number, but that many? No, thank! Please talk care our own shit first. We are about hitting the 2M patients in New York alone! If any of my friends died from this, I will turn to anti Trump forever!

Mar 30, 2020 03:49 AM

There should be just over 55 million lready in the U.S. (no symptoms. not tested).

Mar 30, 2020 12:36 PM

I’m pretty convinced by your comment you are not a US resident or citizen. The governor of New York is doing an outstanding job, and true to American way is FREE to challenge the president of the United States in public directly and through the FREE press. Good luck CPC - RIP.

Mar 30, 2020 01:30 PM

Why are you blaming President Trump for the Coronavirus? Please look at how the people behave with constantly breaking the urgent needs for social distancing and stay at home requirements. These people are gathering in large crowds thinking they’re immune from the virus, which in fact they’re spreading the Coronavirus onto others without realizing that they’re sick without showing any symptoms at first from the virus. Read the article on 70 members showed up in Skagit, Washington for choir practice turned fatal which was caused by airborne Coronavirus. The only way to beat the Coronavirus is to stop large crowds gathering in churches, parties and any other activities. It happened in 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The interventions to curve H1N1 Virus were isolation, quarantine, good personal hygiene, use of disinfectants, and limitations of public gatherings. Our government should start public names shaming and charge each individual of at least $3,000 for breaking the policy.

Mar 30, 2020 03:41 PM

Don't worry. There aren't 2M infected in NYC.

Mar 30, 2020 04:59 PM

Ellen thinks America is stupid for not comparing COVID-19 to other diseases... even though COVID-19 is not other diseases.

Maybe Ellen thinks her flu shot will prevent COVID-19 since it is to similar? Nah... she's probably an anti-vaxxer.

Mar 30, 2020 12:25 AM

Radio Free Asia (RFA) is a United States government–funded, nonprofit international broadcasting corporation that broadcasts and publishes online news, information and commentary to readers and listeners in East Asia. Its self-stated mission is "to provide accurate and timely news and information to Asian countries whose governments prohibit access to a free press."[4]

Based on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, it was established in the 1990s with the aim of promoting democratic values and human rights, and diminishing Chinese Communist control.[5] It is funded by a grant from the U.S. Agency for Global Media (formerly the "Broadcasting Board of Governors"), an independent agency of the United States government.[6] In 2017, RFA and other networks, such as Voice of America, were put under the newly created US Agency for Global Media, an independent federal agency.[7]

A short-lived earlier incarnation of Radio Free Asia also existed in the 1950s, as an anti-Communist propaganda operation funded by the CIA.[5][8]

Is it any more "truthful" than Trump?

Mar 29, 2020 11:15 PM

Take anything published on this US government-funded website with a grain of salt. Yes, the Chinese figures are 'off', just as ours are, but it's highly unlikely they (or we) have intentionally gamed them. To quote Bloomberg's more measured article on the same topic:

"There were 56,007 cremations in Wuhan in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to data from the city’s civil affairs agency. The number of cremations was 1,583 higher than those in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 2,231 higher than the fourth quarter of 2017."

Let's go with the 2018 figure as the 'norm': over 54,000 deaths would occur in Wuhan during a typical three month period. The number posited in RFA's article is 46,800 and implies that every one of those deaths was related to COVID-19!

I'm willing to believe the Chinese government missed one or two thousand COVID deaths during the early days of the epidemic, but none of the available data suggests a grand conspiracy to hide tens of thousands of deaths.

Mar 29, 2020 09:30 PM

Then why is New York's deaths already surpassing the whole country of China covid deaths?

Mar 30, 2020 12:14 PM

It really all depends on what masks and test kits they used doesn't it? Perhaps the ones they sent to Europe that were faulty?

Apr 01, 2020 10:31 AM

You should at least quote the correct numbers and not use some fake numbers:
"There were 13,856 cremations in Wuhan in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the city’s civil affairs agency. That was 2,419 lower than in the fourth quarter of 2018."
https://time.com/5811222/wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll/

Making your point completely useless and further strengthening the point of this article.

Apr 08, 2020 01:53 AM

I'm split on this. On one hand, I do think the deaths are undercounted, but with a city of 11 million, there would be many deaths recorded outside of the virus fatalities.

I'd like to find out, that's for sure. We'll be able to compare China's numbers to those in Italy and Spain and the US and compare based on age and other demographics later, I suppose.

Mar 29, 2020 09:25 PM

I am very sorry but no government could be trusted, today. Draw your conclusions.

Mar 29, 2020 07:19 PM

@Nwa Chukwu, same way the numbers never add up. They never record it.

Mar 29, 2020 06:49 PM

Do we know how many deaths Wuhan would experience in a similar length of time under normal circumstances? Not that I doubt the ChiCom government would cover up any number that reflected on them badly, but there are things we just don't know about the situation.

Mar 29, 2020 03:45 PM

Wuhan has a population of 11 million, more if you include the surrounding metropolitan area. How many people would have died in 2.5 months without the COVID virus?
This article is complete speculation.

Mar 29, 2020 03:04 PM

Doing some maths…

Taking Wuhan's population (11M) and China's life expectancy (76yrs) one expects 400 deaths on average day… 2.5 months would mean 30k expected dead during the 2.5 month lockdown for non-coronavirus-related reasons.

Estimated real figure: ~10k dead.

Mar 29, 2020 02:41 PM

Also am I missing something here? If that’s the speed how the virus spread and cause of deaths. Why isn’t New York in complete closedown yet?! Parks are still crowded with people. How the hack is New York going to get the situation under control?

Mar 29, 2020 01:16 PM

I've read the comments to this article which may or may not be factual. You people are absolutely suckered in by just anything anybody throws out there. I have no doubt China has lied, but the US has not counted people who have died of other diseases, get real. I'm sick of reading stupidity like this, makes me think half America is just retarded.
[This comment has been edited by RFA Editorial staff per our Terms of Use]

Mar 29, 2020 10:59 AM

So the number of infected in total is around 120M+ more like 300M in China

Mar 29, 2020 08:38 AM

Just a matter of asking: how come this epidemic never got to Beijing and other parts of China? What did they do right to stop its spread and cause its apparent stop now?

Mar 28, 2020 06:35 PM

Chinese officials barricaded Wuhan and shut the whole country down. Not with the recommendations and pretty pleases of Western countries.

Mar 29, 2020 08:45 PM

The west cannot trust China again. This a monumental and inexcusable failure of the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese political system. Faced with facts, the people of Wuhan won't believe the CCP's horrid lies. In any politically mature country people would demand a leader such as Xi Jinping to take full and total responsibility for his complete failure of leadership and resign. But this is China, so Xi has and will continue to hide from responsibility like the coward he is.

The Chinese ambassador to Sweden recently said that China treats its friends with fine wine, but its enemies with shotguns. This is a poisonous relationship. It is time that the West stop kowtowing to these stains on humanity and force the Xi and the CCP pay for their lies. The Chinese people will unfortunately be collateral damage, just like those outside of China to the CCP's lies and failures.

Mar 28, 2020 02:48 PM

Naturally for a city like Wuhan with more than 10 millions of people, there will be some death. When the epidemic happened, all the hospitals were converted into COVID-19 infection treatment, the normal patients' treatments were delayed, which would result in some higher death. Just like in US, some death would be mis-categorized if there were not diagnosed or postmortem to determine the cause, it would not count as COVID-19. At this critical time of preventing and curing pandemic, this kind of reports missed the whole point.

Mar 28, 2020 09:52 AM

Honestly this is the first thing that struck me. Not that I believe China isn't witholding truths, but deaths from other causes don't suddenly press pause while Covid was getting dealt with. In fact, they will increase as resources are redirected elsewhere. This is a relevant extra layer of tragedy, but a clearer study of this has to be conducted before we can assume that the government is only reporting 8% of the true number, or whatever it is.

Mar 29, 2020 04:03 PM

So you are ascribing almost 40,000 deaths to other non-COVID causes? Absolutely rubbish. The death rate (non-COVID) in China is 0.7402% per year, and likely lower in a high tier city like Wuhan. So over the two month shutdown of Wuhan (10 million) there should be no more than 12,000 non-COVID deaths. They’re seeing an estimated 3x that number.

Mar 29, 2020 06:36 PM

I think this applies to more than Wuhan and the Hubei province. They're covering up this disaster just like they're covering up everything that might upset the population. Just like with Trump in the United States, Xi and his buddies failed to act in a timely fashion to the COVID-19 virus. Now the rest of the world will have to suffer as a consequence.

Mar 28, 2020 09:50 AM